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acerimmer
Alter Hase
Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Posts: 725
Location: England
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 Posted: 27.12.2006 05:44 Post subject: |
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Hi cosmo
Yeah, it is a shame you didnt get the e-mail till just now.......it would have been nice to have you in the world championships. 
I too have a setup with the flag in the front row for U.L. (behind the lake) but it is pretty much redundant nowadays. I think i used it once this year.....and lost 
Overall......it won maybe 75 to 80% of games.......but this figure would have been much higher if i had just moved the flag to the back 2 rows (where it could be more easily protected)
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| i mean all depends what you consider luck and what you consider skill for example i lost in 12 moves before , not down to skill however but bad luck id say marshal and general were side by side on my left side lotto'd straight down my marshal was pinned by my captains and even though i got his general wham i lost my marshal he rescued run general down and bomb got his marshal but my flag was taken ,i call it bad luck because if his marshal and general were swapped he was screwed but as luck had it my setup wasnt made for a lotto flank run lol but i did learn a lot from that loss and i did get revenge |
Yes, in a way.....it is very much down to "What you consider luck to be".
Checking the dictionary definition of "luck"..........hmm......it says "success due to chance".
From this we can say for someone to be "lucky" they must have a less than 50% chance of success. for example......if 3 pieces are left......2 bombs and a flag.....chances are.....that if your marshall attacked......he would die. If he hit the flag......that may be classed as slightly lucky.
My defence for this would be........heck.....i am not going to give you a chance to take my flag......and will scout him and eliminate him before he gets to my flag......this way.....the chances of you hitting my flag......fall from 33% to 0%.
Moving to your defeat in 12 moves.........I too had defeats like this.....(in the early days)........but not any more. With all honesty......it sounds like you left your flag poorly defended for such a lotto strike. Some may say it was unlucky.......but I personally feel it was down to a poor defensive strategy.
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| i had an uncanny nack of knowing what piece was advancing for example a sergeant and id beat it with a sergeant Lucky ? or Skill ? most would say total luck perhaps so but in ul you need luck . leaving a general entire game on back line and opponent thinking bomb and thus losing them game another example is that just bad luck ? or great trickery on my part ? whatever % anyone thinks its still part of the game sometimes more than other times |
The argument of a sergeant taking another sergent blind......could be classed as either luck or good judgement......but in the big picture......it means little. The gain or loss of such a minor piece.....means little to the outcome of a game. When we come to a large piece taking another large piece of same value (blind) then this would be classed as skill and not bad luck.......because the attacking player who risks his high piece.....without scouting the defending piece.......would be foolish to attack without at least knowing what it is attacking.
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as for playing newbies
i gotta say often they are harder to beat than experienced players because they do moves that make no sense and that you cant expect and that sometimes can cost you so can over confidence .
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Yes, I can honestly say......over confidence against newbies......has cost me games in the past. In fact.....ALL my 4 losses on Gravon in the last 19 months.......can be put down to over confidence. Instead of paying a tight game......I played very casual and loose and didn't mind playing from a losing position.....because i was confident of pulling the game back.....and winning. (only.......I didnt on 4 occasions)
Silly mistakes and over confident play!
Against good players I wouldn't play so risky and not let myself get far behind within a game.
Let me just add.......that I am quite shocked that you feel the game holds such a high % of luck. For this reason......let me invite you to a series of U.L. games against me......here on Gravon. You can either choose a 5 game series or a 10 game series. I will play you in a series of games.....and will try to convince you.....you were not beaten by luck.....but by............. tactical ability and good play.
We could discuss the games afterwards and hopefully you will see there is no luck within the game that can change the outcome of the result. |
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cosmo
Fortgeschrittener
Joined: 23 Jun 2003
Posts: 102
Location: UK
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| Posted: 27.12.2006 22:27 Post subject: |
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hi ace
you say my set-up sounds like poor defensive strategy to this i say NO WRONG it is a really nice setup which has 90% win percentage good offence and defense but every set-up has flaws you can't legislate for everything , as i said if general and marshal were swapped round as in marshal on edge general 1 square in i was safe the chances of setting my general , spy , marshal in exact place opposite his is pretty unlikely as was him placing gen and mars in front line and just running down without care if they die or not often a player with this in mind would sacrifice a piece or two first then lotto as planned , ive had players do it many times in many games and mostly with same outcome an easy win for me that game was just a one off 90% fluke luck game id call it as is anyone who blind lottos this is where i come up with 65% luck from , im talking in general when i play myself i know its 90% skill on my part but as i said i was talking overall for all players , so dont take it that i think you win by luck mostly im not saying that at all but i stopped playing due to 90% of players being lotto players so 90% of that type of play = lots of luck
About the sergeant i was just using that piece as an example mainly was the major i captured but whatever the piece same applies , by the way i consider every piece important i once rescued a sergeant so i could win by taking every piece on board without losing any  was against a really excellent player also was my best ever game flawless
as for best of 5 or 10 i imagine id lose everyone its been so long sinse i played lol but i will be in gravon as times this week so we will see |
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acerimmer
Alter Hase
Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Posts: 725
Location: England
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| Posted: 28.12.2006 16:44 Post subject: |
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| you say my set-up sounds like poor defensive strategy to this i say NO WRONG it is a really nice setup which has 90% win percentage good offence and defense but every set-up has flaws you can't legislate for everything , as i said if general and marshal were swapped round as in marshal on edge general 1 square in i was safe the chances of setting my general , spy , marshal in exact place opposite his is pretty unlikely as was him placing gen and mars in front line and just running down without care if they die or not often a player with this in mind would sacrifice a piece or two first then lotto as planned , ive had players do it many times in many games and mostly with same outcome an easy win for me that game was just a one off 90% fluke luck game id call it as is anyone who blind lottos |
hmmm........let me just say.......i think the mistake you made.....was not scouting this attack earlier. If you did.....this attack can be defended. Scouting early is important......especially if the opponent attacks with several unseen pieces.
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| this is where i come up with 65% luck from , im talking in general when i play myself i know its 90% skill on my part but as i said i was talking overall for all players , so dont take it that i think you win by luck mostly im not saying that at all but i stopped playing due to 90% of players being lotto players so 90% of that type of play = lots of luck |
Yes, in a way......you may be right there.......for some inexperianced players the luck factor would technically be much higher......not 65%.....but maybe 30%. But the reason they will experiance a luck factor.......is that they may not grasp the full aspect of the game. For more experianced players.......the luck factor would be around 1%......if that......dare I repeat myself.....and say there is no luck in U.L.?
Inexperianced players may make mistakes with setups and tactics......but not realise their mistakes......thus putting their mistakes down to bad luck. Similarly you may see a player make good tactical decisions......but not really understand "how good a decision it was to make a specific move". Thus claiming they were a little lucky.
Basically it comes down to.......the more you understand the game......the easier it would be to reduce luck aspects down to 0% and play the game in a skillful and logical manner.
Maybe when you played here before.......the lotto players were many.....but not now.....with a few exceptions.....most play the game in a non lotto way. Maybe 20% of players play the lotto way.....while 80% play in a very logical way without lottoing from the start.
Nice to see you back!
Hopefully we will get that 5 or 10 games played.........should be interesting.....to say the least.
Ace |
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ruben87
Gravon Administrator
Joined: 16 Feb 2006
Posts: 1220
Location: The Netherlands
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| Posted: 30.12.2006 19:11 Post subject: |
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| Ace please minimize your posts to small ones. I dont think many people will read it. |
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